Over the last week, I can’t look at the news without thinking about kakistocracy
The Trump transition 2.0 is a very different clown car than the first Trump transition. In 2016, it seemed like Trump never understood the scale and scope of the Federal executive. For him, nothing could require more personnel or skill than running a New York real estate business. In 2024, a universe of MAGA loyalists, opportunists, and true believers are ready.
As with all things Trump, they just keep throwing things out to see what sticks. I think it’s crucial to remember that none of this is a single multi-step plan (do A to then do B to do C to then do D). Rather, they will try all of the things as much and as loudly as possible, see what sticks, and then move on to the next thing.
The “throw all the shit at the wall” tactic works through obstructions and fatigue as much as careful planning. Trump successfully avoided trial in three of the four criminally cases against him by lucking into a compliant ally in Judge Cannon in the federal documents case, which slowed the process down enough to get Trump to the election.
This throw everything at the wall and see what sticks approach is how Trump is trying to fill his cabinet: reward the true believers who stick with him (Elise Stefanik), the friends from TV who will loyally help purge the disloyal (Pete Hegseth), and the heavily compromised whose loyalty can be secured (Matt Gaetz).
Even where the appointments are within the realm of typical Republican quality, like Marco Rubio for State, there are potential Trump loyalty issues underlying them. Elevating Rubio to Secretary of State would clear a seat in the US Senate for an appointment by FL governor Ron DeSantis until a special election in 2026. It appears that the Trumpworld is pushing Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump to fill that seat. While Rubio is not the most independent-minded maverick in the Senate, he’s not going to be as loyal as family.
The two most dangerous appointments announced so far appear to be Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr for Secretary of Health and Human Services and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. Gaetz has experience in the Justice Department only as the subject of an investigation. His appointment seems to be the least palatable to Senate Republicans and unlikely to succeed. But leading with this lead-weighted trial balloon may clear the path for smooth appointments for the even more loyal Todd Blanche as Deputy AG and John Sauer as Solicitor General.
RFK Jr. for Secretary of HHS is likely the compensation for the support as a third-party candidate/endorser. For all of the issues with Big Pharma having influence over policy, I can’t imagine that drastic cuts to basic research funding will satisfy industry. I would be surprised if this goes through.
But having key lightning rods who are clearly unsuitable for the roles to which they’ve been nominated might help clear paths to appointments for the even more dangerous. Former Representative Tulsi Gabbard seems to have bonded with Trump as fellow Russophiles.
Aside from nominating flawed candidates, the appointment process is also testing other theories of ensuring loyalty to Trump rather than the United States. First, eschewing FBI vetting.
Most dangerously, the Trump team is floating the idea of making all of the cabinet appointments as recess appointments, so that the Senate does not get to use its oversight power before appointing cabinet members. If the Senate does not simply acquiesce, the Trump team has floated the idea of using the never-invoked Article II, Section 3 authority to settle disagreements between the House and Senate about when to adjourn to force the Senate into adjournment and make recess appointments. A compliant Speaker of the House could be a willing ally in this plan. Benjamin Wittes, Lawfare: Will the Senate even get to vote on Trump’s bizarre national security nominees?
It’s not one thing, or another. It’s all the things, all the time to try to wear us all down and get as much authoritarianism and grift as the system will allow.
